Chance of asteroid colliding with Earth in 2032: 'Sooner or later, it's bound to happen' – Expert
Carl Lindemann cautions that the longer we delay understanding the full scale of the asteroid’s threat, the harder it will be to take action in time.
Asteroid / Image: Pixabay
CapeTalk's Lester Kiewit interviews Carl Lindemann, former board member of the Astronomical Society of Southern Africa.
Listen below:
China has launched a recruitment campaign for a planetary defence force following risk assessments that suggest a potential asteroid threat to Earth in 2032.
This initiative is driven by rising concerns over the 2024 YR4 asteroid, which currently carries a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth.
RELATED: China launches recruitment for 'planetary defence force' amid 2032 asteroid threat
Lindemann explains that the real worry is that, 'sooner or later', an asteroid 40 to 90 metres in diameter – similar in size to the 2024 YR4 – is 'bound' to strike Earth and cause significant damage.
"This stuff is out there."
- Carl Lindemann, Former Board Member – Astronomical Society of Southern Africa
He stresses that more observational data is required to refine the asteroid's orbit, which can be achieved using the Webb telescope, the "finest piece of technology in space."
Lindemann also highlights the importance of understanding the asteroid's composition.
Whether it’s a solid mass or a loose collection of rubble plays a crucial role in assessing its potential impact.
He notes that a loosely packed asteroid, like a pile of gravel, would be less destructive than a solid iron mass, which could cause far more severe consequences.
However, Lindemann cautions that the longer we delay understanding the full scale of the asteroid’s threat, the harder it will be to take action in time.
"We'll get a better look as we get closer to it. Here's the downside: the closer you get to the possible impact, if the impact's actually going to happen... the more difficult it is to deflect it."
- Carl Lindemann, Former Board Member – Astronomical Society of Southern Africa
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