Sara-Jayne Makwala King16 April 2025 | 7:07

Is the GNU at breaking point, and where to from here? 3 likely scenarios...

What does the future hold for South Africa’s Government of National Unity? Could we see the DA out in favour of the EFF?

Is the GNU at breaking point, and where to from here? 3 likely scenarios...

FILE: The DA and ANC entered into an arrangement in the Government of National Unity. Picture: GCIS

CapeTalk's John Maytham is joined by Daily Maverick Associate Editor Ferial Haffajee to unpack her latest article on South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU).

Listen below:

It's been almost a year since the GNU came into being and members' horns have been locked over several issues.

Notably, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the African National Congress (ANC) have gone head-to-head over issues related to the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act (BELA], the National Health Insurance (NHI) Act and the Expropriation Act.

Most recently there was the contentious issue of the VAT increase which the DA had suggested could signal the end of its membership of the GNU.

So, what's the way forward?

In her latest article for the Daily Maverick, associate editor Ferial Haffajee explores three possible options for the future of the GNU.

According to Haffajee, they are:

1. The status quo holds

2. Drop the DA, bring in ActionSA and Bosa

3. A more populist GNU

"The ANC has always said it wants a big GNU, comprised of as many parties as possible."
- Ferial Haffajee, Associate Editor - Daily Maverick 

Can the GNU survive without Bosa and ActionSA asks Maytham, suggesting those parties will be looking for some recompense for their help in getting the fiscal framework passed in Parliament.

"Certainly. They've made that pretty clear and I think that must have been the explicit deal, although we don't know the details..."
- Ferial Haffajee, Associate Editor - Daily Maverick 

The least likely scenario, says Haffajee, would see a more populist GNU, including the likes of the EFF.

Although it's not an impossible scenario, says Haffajee, especially given Deputy President Paul Mashatile's ascendence in the ANC and Ramaphosa’s term heading into the beginning of the end.

It’s no secret that Mashatile would prefer a different government, where a minority government runs things.

"He will go with the option that best serves his future political ambitions, that is the macro, the big GNU, even though he might prefer a GNU with the EFF or even a minority government which is what we have in Gauteng."
- Ferial Haffajee, Associate Editor - Daily Maverick

Scroll up to listen to the full interview - and click here to read Haffajee's article.