Moody’s cuts SA growth forecast, amid uncertainty as world waits for final Trump tariffs

The Money Show's Stephen Grootes interviews George Glynos, Head of Research at ETM Analytics.

Ratings agency Moody's has cut  South Africa's growth forecast for 2025 to 1.5%.

That's down a 0.2 percentage point from the February forecast.

Of course major drivers like geopolitical tensions and the US trade war are not only affecting South Africa - Moody's expects the global economy to expand by a reduced 1.9% in 2025, from the previous forecast of 2.5%.

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Considering these factors, a downward revision is inevitable, says George Glynos, Head of Research at ETM Analytics.

What is even worse, he goes on, is that the world is in a state of flux, which means predicting with any confidence how things will unfold this year is very difficult.

"We've got this issue of tariffs that have been imposed; now we've got a whole bunch of negotiations that are unfolding with the biggest one of course that we need to unfold between the US and China."

George Glynos, Head of Research - ETM Analytics

"That hasn't even begun; yet there are many others we're led to believe ARE unfolding, so the ultimate impact could be quite different from the tariffs that were announced which has an implication for the kind of forecast that the models will come up with."

George Glynos, Head of Research - ETM Analytics

Because of this ongoing uncertainty, the risk is to the downside as Moody's forecast predicts.

If anything, Glynos says, ETM Analytics believes there might even be a downside risk to that forecast.

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