ANC may only retain majority in Eastern Cape and Limpopo by 2029 - Mistra

702’s Clement Manyathela hosts a dialogue with Director of Research at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra) Prof. Susan Booysen, political commentator Mbhazima Shilowa, and Professor of Political Science at UNISA Prof. Dirk Kotzé.

Listen below:

A study out of the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra) found that the ANC’s dominance in the country may be coming to an end - if patterns persist.

They found that the party will likely only hold majority in two of the nine provinces after the 2029 general elections.

These provinces are Limpopo and Eastern Cape.

In 2024 the ANC received only 40% on the national vote, its worst result since 1994.

Booysen says they have noticed a systematic decline in ANC support across all provinces since 2002 and 2009.

“If that trend continues, and so far we do not see anything that suggests it will not, then more provinces will become coalition governments in the next elections.”

- Prof. Susan Booysen, Director of Research - Mistra 

“It is a new era that is dawning for coalition governments.” 

- Prof. Susan Booysen, Director of Research - Mistra 

She says that the ANC would have to significantly improve governance to retain power.

However, Shilowa feels we cannot say we have reached the end of the ANC, as the study is focusing more on trends than voter intentions.

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“There are people who, from 1994 – before the ANC had been in power for a year – had wished that it would collapse.”

- Mbhazima Shilowa, Political commentator 

Kotzé believes the trends are sending a clear message about what we can expect going forward, and that there is no way for the ANC to turn the situation around at this point.

Scroll up to the audio player for more.