Nersa's R54 billion tariff blunder: ‘Significant electricity price increases expected over the next few years’ - Chris Yelland, Energy Analyst

Thabo Shole Mashao (standing in for 702's Clement Manyathela) chats to Energy Analyst, Chris Yelland.

Listen to their conversation in the audio clip below:

"Government and Eskom and Nersa get bailouts from the fiscus, and the fiscus is paid by the taxpayer. One way or another, we pay for these mistakes. Whether we pay as taxpayers, whether we pay as customers of electricity, we pay."  

- Chris Yelland, Energy Analyst

South Africans can expect steeper electricity tariffs from April 2026 after the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) admitted to a staggering R54 billion miscalculation in Eskom’s multi-year price determination. 

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The error, discovered after Eskom legally challenged Nersa’s initial tariff ruling, has led to a secretive out-of-court settlement that allows the utility to recover the shortfall directly from consumers.

"This is not the first mistake; there have been a number of mistakes that have been challenged in court."  

- Chris Yelland, Energy Analyst

The revised deal will see electricity tariffs rise by nearly 9% in both 2026 and 2027, significantly higher than the previously approved 5% and 6%. 

Yelland warns that the total clawback now stands at a jaw-dropping R96 billion. 

"In addition to this R54 billion mistake, there are other determinations that bring this total amount that needs to be recovered from the customer to R96 billion. This is a staggering amount and is going to result in substantial price increases over the next few years."  

- Chris Yelland, Energy Analyst

He also criticises Nersa for failing to protect consumers from years of "corruption, procurement irregularities, and inefficiencies" baked into past tariffs.

“At the moment, it seems to be going out of its way to ensure that Eskom can claw back what is duly owed to it... It should also be looking after the customer and clawing back billions of rands on behalf of the customer, which would result in price decreases and not increases."  

- Chris Yelland, Energy Analyst

Yelland urges civil society and industry groups to challenge the settlement and demand more rigorous oversight. 

Scroll up to listen to the full conversation.