South Africa’s REAL unemployment rate: Is it 10%? 43%? What is it?
Conflicting figures and flawed data collection raise serious questions about how we measure South Africa's unemployment rate.
Unemployment jobs unemployed
Cape Talk's John Maytham (in for Lester Kiewit) is joined by News24 Business Editor Helena Wasserman.
Listen below:
What is South Africa’s true unemployment rate?
Could it be as high as 43% (as per the expanded rate, which takes into account those who have given up looking for work), or as little as 10%?
Recently, Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie suggested the latter, saying that statistics fail to take into account all those who work in the informal economy or have very small businesses.
In her latest column for News24, business editor Helena Wasserman says that our unemployment data is useless, because of the way data is extracted - from a sample of just 30,000 households.
So, how important is it that we know the real number?
"It matters in the sense that it's very negative for investment in South Africa."
- Helena Wasserman, Business Editor - News24
"The picture that we're painting with the unemployment rate... is of a hopeless country, always teetering on the brink of social unrest."
- Helena Wasserman, Business Editor - News24
ALSO READ: SA's definition of employment needs to be rethought to include informal sector, says Capitec CEO
Wasserman says that while knowing the real unemployment rate won't change the way people are living in South Africa, it will offer some valuable insights.
"Knowing how many people are economically active will help us understand ourselves a bit better."
- Helena Wasserman, Business Editor - News24
ALSO READ: Is South Africa’s real unemployment rate 10%? Capitec Bank CEO Gerrie Fourie sparks debate
Wasserman says the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) has been the method used for at least 20 years, despite our growing population.
She says it's not the sample size itself that is the problem.
"The American population is five times the size of South Africa. They only have a sample size of 60,000, but it's absolutely crucial that it reflects the make-up of the South African population."
- Helena Wasserman, Business Editor - News24
"Our sample is based on the 2011 census, and a lot has changed since then. You can't just have a sample that's not reflective of what the population is."
- Helena Wasserman, Business Editor - News24
Scroll up to the audio player to listen to the full conversation from Good Morning Cape Town, and click here to read Wasserman's latest article for News24.