ANC succession talks heat up, DA leadership contest looms

South Africa’s major political parties are entering a volatile few months, with leadership questions hanging over both the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the African National Congress (ANC) ahead of the 2026 local government elections.

The DA is set to hold an electoral conference in April, where party leader John Steenhuisen will either survive a challenge or be replaced. Analysts say the outcome will shape perceptions of the party’s readiness for November’s municipal polls.

There is, however, uncertainty over just how competitive the conference will be.

“We will frantically analyse whether his staying or his going will have a beneficial or disadvantageous impact on the DA’s performance in the local government elections,” noted Ferial Haffajee, a senior journalist at the Daily Maverick.

ANC by-elections and succession anxiety

On the governing party’s side, recent by-election results have fuelled expectations that the African National Congress could face an even tougher outing in local government elections than it did nationally.

“The feeling amongst the analytical community is that the ANC is going to get pounded even more in the local government elections,” Haffajee said, pointing to by-election trends as evidence.

Attention is also shifting to who might eventually replace President Cyril Ramaphosa at the helm of the ANC. Names such as Paul Mashatile and Fikile Mbalula continue to circulate, though neither appears to excite voters beyond the party’s core structures.

Motsepe T-shirts spark speculation

Fresh intrigue emerged this week after reports of ‘PM 2027’ T-shirts surfaced, fuelling speculation about a possible leadership bid by billionaire businessman Patrice Motsepe.

Haffajee said the appearance of campaign-style merchandise was a notable development.

“Once T-shirts start getting printed, things get a little more serious,” she said, adding that Motsepe has historically appeared politically distant, even during highly charged periods on university campuses in the 1980s.

Haffajee cautioned against over-interpreting the move, suggesting the shirts may reflect the enthusiasm of lobbyists rather than the businessman himself. “Right now, I would say that ‘PM 2027’ is an exuberant lobbyist rather than the candidate himself,” she said.

Still, she noted that Motsepe’s governance experience through African Rainbow Minerals and his role at the Confederation of African Football could count in his favour, should he decide to enter the race.

Johannesburg as an election battleground

Looking ahead to municipal elections, Johannesburg is shaping up as a key battleground. With multiple ANC candidates in play and renewed talk of a return by former mayor Herman Mashaba, analysts believe the race for the city could define the broader local government contest.

“There’s a looming motion of no confidence and a five-candidate race so far,” Haffajee said, adding that Johannesburg’s outcome would carry national and even regional significance.

With leadership contests, succession debates and bruising municipal races converging, the coming months are likely to test South Africa’s political parties — and sharpen the stakes ahead of the ballot box.

For more information, listen to Haffajee using the audio player below: