South Africa caught in a three-body problem of global power

South Africa is navigating an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape, caught between three global heavyweights – the United States, China and Russia – each exerting its own pull.

That’s the argument put forward by geopolitical analyst Koffi Kouakou, whose recent Sunday Times article likens the country’s position to a ‘three-body problem’, a concept borrowed from physics and popularised by Chinese science fiction author Liu Cixin.

Gravitational pulls in a chaotic system

Kouakou says the metaphor helps explain the complexity of today’s global order.

“At the end of the Cold War, the US emerged as the global superpower. Diplomatic calculations were simple: cosy up to Washington,” he said.

But that clarity has faded. Instead, South Africa now finds itself in a system shaped by what he calls three ‘geopolitical suns’.

“These three powerful geopolitical suns are now shaping our environment today, and they will shape it in the next 10 to 15, even 50 years coming,” Kouakou said.

Drawing on Liu Cixin’s novel, he compared the instability of orbiting celestial bodies to the uncertainty of global politics, where smaller states must decide how to survive amid competing gravitational forces.

“South Africa is going to have to find a way to either manage what I call gravitational allegiance to one of those poles or find a way to survive in a chaotic world,” he explained.

Visibility and vulnerability

International diplomacy, Kouakou acknowledges, is rarely straightforward. Asked whether South Africa has sometimes misstepped, he conceded, “Yes, of course, and it’s not easy.”

He argues that smaller and mid-sized powers must tread carefully in a system dominated by larger economies and militaries.

“We are not as powerful. Our gravitational power is not as close as that of the United States, China or Russia,” he said.

Kouakou warns that in such an environment, overt positioning can come at a cost.

“One of my mottos is that visibility can lead to vulnerability,” he said.

He cited South Africa’s decision to take Israel to the International Court of Justice over allegations of genocide in Gaza as an example of how taking a firm stance can expose a country to diplomatic backlash.

At the same time, he acknowledged that complete silence is not an option.

“You cannot be in the world without being visible,” he said.

Ideology versus pragmatism

Kouakou suggests that the era of strict ideological alignment may be over, replaced by a more pragmatic approach to foreign policy.

In his article, he references the ‘dark forest theory’ – another concept from Liu Cixin’s work – which imagines the universe as a forest where every civilisation is a hunter.

In such a setting, survival depends on caution.

“If you’re too visible, the big ones can really hit you very, very hard,” he said.

The challenge for South Africa, then, is to remain at the table without becoming the target.

As global competition intensifies, the country’s diplomatic strategy may depend less on moral clarity and more on calculated navigation through an unpredictable system.

For more detailed information, listen to Kouakou using the audio player below: