China’s COMAC C919 ‘just not good enough’ to challenge Airbus, Boeing

China’s state-backed aircraft manufacturer, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), is drawing comparisons with the rapid rise of Chinese car brands in South Africa.

But while Chinese vehicles have quickly gained ground locally, aviation analyst Dr Guy Leitch says COMAC’s C919 passenger jet is not yet ready to disrupt the global aviation duopoly dominated by Airbus and Boeing.

C919 “just not good enough”

The narrowbody C919 is designed to compete with the Airbus A320 family and the Boeing 737 MAX aircraft widely used on short- to medium-haul routes.

However, Leitch says the Chinese jet falls short.

“To answer your question succinctly, it’s just not good enough,” he said.

He described the lack of competition in the sector as a problem for airlines worldwide, with Airbus and Boeing facing order backlogs stretching up to seven years.

“There’s a desperate need for somebody to come along and break this Airbus and Boeing duopoly,” he said.

New-generation aircraft are typically around 20% more fuel efficient than their predecessors — a critical factor for airlines battling high operating costs.

Leach says this is where the C919 faces its first major hurdle.

“It is actually the previous generation’s aircraft, and it’s smaller and more expensive than the Boeing 737 MAX or Airbus A320 family.”

Certification remains a major obstacle

While more than 200 C919 aircraft are reportedly flying in China, the jet has not yet received certification from the United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA).

That limits its ability to compete in major global markets.

“The real hurdles this aircraft faces are not in certification at home, but internationally,” Leitch explained.

He said approval from European regulators could still be three to five years away, with US certification likely to take even longer.

Without those approvals, global sales will remain constrained.

Long development cycles in aviation

Leitch also cautioned against comparing aircraft manufacturing with the automotive sector, where Chinese brands have rapidly improved quality and market share.

“The problem with aircraft is that they’re not cars,” he said.

Aircraft development cycles span decades, with around 30 years often needed to design, build and certify a new model.

Neither Airbus nor Boeing has launched a completely new narrowbody aircraft in the past 20 years, underlining how slow-moving the industry can be.

“The reality is that they need to rapidly build up maintenance and support facilities anywhere in the world that they wish to fly them as well,” Leitch added.

Interest from Africa, but limited impact for now

There has been reported interest in the C919 from parts of Africa, including Nigeria. However, potential orders are said to be small, just three or four aircraft.

That is unlikely to shift the balance of power in the global aviation market.

While Leitch does not see the C919 as a serious challenger to Airbus and Boeing in the near term, he believes China could close the gap over time.

“We cannot write the Chinese off. I’m sure that the next time around, they’ll come in much quicker, with much more learning in terms of what is actually required to get into this market.”

For now, however, the C919 appears unlikely to reshape global aviation in the way Chinese car brands have transformed South Africa’s roads.

For more detailed information, listen to Leitch using the audio player below: