JUDITH FEBRUARY | SONA 2026: Ramaphosa faces a defining test of leadership and the rule of law

President Ramaphosa will deliver his annual State of the Nation address (SONA) this evening.

Ramaphosa comes to Parliament leading a GNU which holds the state together with differing levels of effectiveness. There have been a few moments where the Democratic Alliance has threatened to walk out of the GNU. But there is a co-dependency between the two parties which neither will admit and which realpolitik demands.

Ramaphosa’s GNU and its oft-halting progress is also reflective of the fact that the ANC cannot conceive that it has lost its electoral majority.

Ramaphosa, in his second and last term is president of a waning party.

Cynical as we might be about the annual SONA, it is a ritual of our democracy and a moment for the President to account to Parliament and in so doing to all of us. It is also a rare moment where the legislature, executive and judiciary are in the same room.

Given where we find ourselves this SONA it may well be appropriate for Ramaphosa to recommit to the basic building blocks of our democracy.

Recommitment to these is imperative if we stand any chance of dealing with our multiple challenges, be they economic or social.

Who did we aspire to be when the final Constitution was signed into law in 1996? We have the words written in section 1,

‘The Republic of South Africa is one, sovereign, democratic state founded on the following values: (a) Human dignity, the achievement of equality and the advancement of human rights and freedoms. (b) Non-racialism and non-sexism. (c) Supremacy of the constitution and the rule of law. (d) Universal adult suffrage, a national common voters roll, regular elections and a multi-party system of democratic government, to ensure accountability, responsiveness and openness.’

That we have strayed from these building blocks is common cause, with evidence a-plenty.

All around the world, the rule of law is under threat and so South Africa cannot afford to be complacent about ensuring that the rule of law and the institutions underpinning it are protected.

Our context of deepening inequality, an increasing alienation, specifically by young people, from democracy itself as well as a decade of state capture, make the task of defending the Constitution and the rule of law even more urgent.

The stakes are very high. A recent Afrobarometer survey reported “deep frustration” with South Africa’s democratic system. Most strikingly, 49% of respondents expressed support for military rule, a 21% increase since the previous survey round in 2022.

What it does demonstrate quite clearly is that we must be concerned about how our democratic institutions are functioning and the legitimacy they hold in the eyes of citizens.

In the 2024 election, voter turnout was 59% in 2024, down from 66% in 2019. Approximately one third of voters feels that no political party represents them. Youth turnout or lack thereof is a particular concern.

Our society is fraying at the edges with a criminal justice system in utter disarray. We have become inured to the undermining of the rule of law all too often, with violence.

Last year Regional Court prosecutor Tracy Brown was shot dead outside her home in Gqeberha. This was not the first killing of a prosecutor in the Eastern Cape this year, with prosecutor Elona Sombulula having been murdered in Ngcobo in April of the same year.

Whilst the reasons for the killings are as yet unknown, there are strong suspicions that the killings are linked to the prosecutors’ work, specifically relating to cases involving corruption.

Recent years have seen the killing of BOSASA liquidators Thomas and Cloete Murray, the attempted murder of advocate Coreth Naude, the killing of Gauteng Health Department whistleblower Babitha Deokaran, the murder of police Anti-Gang Unit detective Charl Kinnear, and the murder of City of Johannesburg forensic investigator Zenzele Sithole. And this is not a comprehensive list.

Most recently explosive allegations by KwaZulu-Natal Police Commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi about organised crime infiltrating the highest levels of government. These allegations have led to the suspension of the Minister of Police and the establishment of the Madlanga Commission of Inquiry.

The impunity with which these acts are committed raises deeply concerning questions about the state of our society, and our ability to uphold the very fabric of our constitutional democracy.

The impunity must be named and tackled, with the President leading an all-of-government and all-of-society effort to deal with the undermining of the rule of law.

That will include concerted efforts to bring about the full independence of the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA).

For as the Anti-Corruption Coalition has argued, ‘As long as the executive maintains control over the NPA’s leadership, budget and overall administration, public accountability remains hostage to political will - without genuine independence of the NPA therefore, the promise of justice ‘without fear, or favour or prejudice’, will remain unfinished business.’

If those engaged in corruption do not fear consequences, how does one strengthen the rule of law and ensure that public monies are spent in an accountable manner?

These are important institutional considerations which require political resolve. This goes to the heart of Ramaphosa’s leadership of his cabinet and party because the tone is set at the top.

Tough decisions are necessary. Thembi Simelane, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, Paul Mashatile all retain their positions in Ramaphosa’s cabinet and all face allegations of corruption. Ramaphosa, a lover of Inquiries and commissions, has often used them to buy time or defuse political tensions.

It obviates immediate decision-making yet undercover of process, be it on security matters or lately the SANDF and the Iranian warship fiasco. On the latter, Angie Motshekga as minister of Defence and Military Veterans seems quite comfortable in her position too despite it all.

Local government, largely suffering from the same impunity and lack of accountability, is in crisis.

It will be on everyone’s minds given that this is a local government election year. Bad governance and corruption affect ordinary people.
The Auditor-General has repeatedly warned against financial mismanagement in municipalities.

It is also worthwhile revisiting the 2009 ‘State of Local Government’ report. That report was frank about the patronage networks many local government municipalities have become. It stated unambiguously that party (read: the ANC) factionalism has led, in many parts, to the “progressive deterioration of municipality functionality”.

Furthermore the Report identified weak oversight, overly complex legislation which municipalities are unable to get to grips with, corruption, skills deficits and tensions between the political and administrative interface as bedevilling local government’s efficacy.

Tackling this complex set of challenges will require a combination of leadership, training and tough decisions to ensure that the rule of law prevails in municipalities that are often run as personal fiefdoms.

Progress on the new White Paper on Local Government reform has been slow.

Dealing with water, The South African National Water Resources Infrastructure Agency established in 2024 but has yet to have the desired impact.

Last year Ramaphosa promised us a capable and professional public service (not for the first time) and the Public Service Amendment Bill which is an attempt to cut the noose of cadre deployment seeks to leave important appointments to Directors-General and Heads of Department and not politicians. It could well be a game-changer for socio-economic rights delivery.

We thus have to recommit ourselves to good governance and accountability and then to truly fixing the economy. South Africa’s unemployment rate sits at 31.9% with youth unemployment at 58.5%.

The Presidential Employment Stimulus Plan has provided 1.9 million young people with job opportunities which are temporary in nature.

Last year Ramaphosa promised a Modern Industrial Policy aimed at green manufacturing, digital services and agriculture and mining.

Unemployment cannot be reduced without fixing our education system, which is in large part, unfit for purpose. The lack of accountability at its heart is, even more than resource constraints, is education’s major challenge.

There has been progress as regards infrastructure and the R940 billion spend promised over 3 years, through public-private partnerships, building new dams and the involvement of the private sector in Operation Vulindlela.

Some of it has been a slow grind again on water and ESKOM’s unbundling. When Ramaphosa appointed a Minister of Electricity, it was met with scepticism but, arguably, the genial Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has been a standout appointment.

Our energy challenges have not disappeared but Ramokgopa has our confidence, loadshedding is not part of our daily lives and renewables are part of our energy mix.

Recently, Minister of Trade and Industry, Parks Tau formally announced government plans for a Transformation Fund of R20 billion into which business would contribute its enterprise and supplier development BBB-EE contributions.

It is a hair-brained scheme – who would trust this government (and a chosen private sector partner) with using this fund to grow the economy and provide opportunities for black business? It smacks of a trough for more snouts and is no silver bullet.

So, Ramaphosa may come to Parliament with plans for the economy, infrastructure and local government, education and the usual panoply, he may talk of fixing things (again) but, the challenge is more than a technical one.

It is also a political one.

Unless Ramaphosa deals with the dead wood and populists in his bloated cabinet, unless he faces his party and ensures that the corrupt are dealt with and are nowhere near public office and unless he is bold enough to make the argument against his party’s ideological flights of fancy, be it the National Health Insurance or the Transformation Fund, little will change and our progress will continue to be hesitant.