Middle East airspace closures set to spike ticket prices

"Airspaces are closed, Ma'am."

So DIRCO spokesperson Clayson Monyela responded on X to journalist Chriselda Lewis on Monday, who demanded that there be 'an urgent intervention regarding South Africans trapped on foreign soil'.

Indeed, airspace over much of the Middle East is virtually empty as US and Israeli strikes on Iran continue.

The disruption has triggered widespread flight cancellations and left thousands of passengers stranded.

ALSO READ: Airspace closed, flights cancelled as US-Iran conflict flares

Aviation analyst Guy Leitch says while the situation is dire for the Middle East and major Gulf hubs including Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, it's also significant for South Africa.

"We have 15 flights a day from the Middle East, mostly from Emirates or Qatar, and that's about 4,500 seats a day."

There are reports that the UAE's Etihad Airways has already resumed flights out of Abu Dhabi.

"I think perhaps they are thinking the worst is over and they're going to resort to normal operations soon."

Leitch suggests that once the airspace is open, returning the flight schedule to normal could take up to 48 hours.

ALSO READ: SAns in Middle East describe shock of hearing, witnessing explosions in real time

Insofar as rerouting a flight, Leitch explains that 'once an aircraft is in the air, it doesn't add a huge amount of additional or marginal cost to increase the routing around a troubled spot'.

The highest cost, says Leitch, is having planes sitting on the ground.

But he admits that the knock-on effect of the current situation in the Middle East will be a massive spike in ticket prices.

"Fuel prices are shooting up, and I think they're going to continue shooting up as long as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and since fuel prices typically constitute around a third of an airline's total cost, those get knocked on to passengers pretty quickly."

ALSO READ: Middle East war could change sea traffic patterns around Cape Town

To listen to Leitch in conversation with CapeTalk's John Maytham, use the audio player below: