Business confidence rises further in Q1, but manufacturing sentiment remains weak

Business confidence in South Africa rose further in the first quarter of 2026, building on the improvement in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The latest RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) was up another three points to 47 in Q1.

It now stands six points above its long-term average and a solid 20 points above the post-COVID low reached in Q2 of 2023.

Barring the post-COVID recovery, this is the highest confidence reading since 2015, says the Bureau.

However, the uptick in confidence was not broad-based despite market sentiment being generally positive.
 
Confidence in the manufacturing and retail sectors declined, following encouraging gains in the last quarter of 2025.

That said, solid increases among new vehicle dealers, wholesalers and building contractors more than offset these declines, says the BER.

And while two sectors reflected negative segment, the three that improved were either at the 50 mark or above, notes RMB macroeconomist Keabetswe Mojapelo.

On balance, he says, what we are seeing is a return of the sentiment that is required to pick up investment.

"Usually when we see this sustained confidence, we also see investment following. We saw that in the mid-2000s and hopefully this increase we've seen in the last couple of quarters finally translates into impact on the ground."

What many respondents mentioned is the positive response to President Cyril Ramaphosa's State of the Nation Address (Sona) in February.

"There is also the confidence around the GNU and the Budget being passed, after the three-budgets situation in 2025."

Aside from these "soft" factors influencing confidence, the hard data that supports a more satisfactory business environment of course include a supportive interest rate and contained inflation.

For more insight from RMB's Keabetswe Mojapelo, listen to the interview audio at the top of the article