Oil prices jump back above $100 amid more shipping attacks in the Gulf

Global oil prices surged above $100 a barrel again on Thursday, amid continued supply disruption and no end in sight to the Middle East conflict.

On Monday, Brent crude briefly spiked above $119 a barrel - its highest level since 2022, as production cuts, damaged infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightened global energy markets.

On Thursday, new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran would keep up attacks on Gulf Arab countries and ensure that the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping channel, remains closed.

It was the first statement attributed to the new supreme leader, who has not been publicly seen since he succeeded his father.

At the same time, there has been an increase in retaliatory attacks from Iran on tankers in the area, adding to pessimism that the war will persist for longer, as Bloomberg reports.

Stephen Grootes gets some insight from Sanisha Packirisamy, chief economist at Momentum Investments.

Packirisamy says the conflict is at a pivotal juncture now, complicated by the fact that "it's quite difficult to see who's actually calling the shots".

Even were the US, for one, to declare an end to the war, it is not a certainty that Iran would pull back, the economist remarks.

She highlights the high level of mistrust already generated by Israel's 12-day strike on the country in June last year.

"This time around we have both Israel and the US, and I think that a massive trust deficit between the two doesn't really give Iran any guarantee that no one will attack them again."

As we know, the administration of US President Donald Trump is not willing to offer any type of flexibility at this point but this is exactly what is needed, Packirisamy believes.

One possible solution she proffers is for Washington to lift sanctions, which would show they are at least "trying to meet Iran half-way".

Along with this, she suggests establishing a firm, concrete guarantee from a third party that no one will attack the country again.

"I think without that Iran doesnt have the certainty it needs and this is what makes the question around the duration of this war very tricky to call."

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