SA's SME exports to the US fell 46% since April, new index shows

Exports by South Africa's SMEs to the US have dropped by 46% since April, according to the new Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Export Index.

The Index was compiled by Cape Town-based international shipping platform TUNL, built specifically for South African SMEs and consumer brands with global ambitions.

TUNL services around 3,000 customers which include brands like Ciovita, Versus Socks, Freedom of Movement, Old School Brand, and Melvill & Moon.

The SME Export Index is based on real-life export figures measured in gross merchandise value (GMV) of 1,850 South African SMEs who were exporting to the US before trade policy changes in 2025.

As TUNL COO Aretha Cooper explains, they collated data from this fixed cohort of 1,850 anonymised SME merchants, who have been shipping daily on their platform.

Using this fixed April 2025 baseline cohort enabled TUNL to  see the impact since the US tariffs were announced and came into effect.

While the company says it is small direct-to-consumer businesses that have been hardest hit by the Trump tariffs, they are still collating data to give more specifics about the impact on different categories of business.

Cooper notes that the current data is 'quite lumpy', showing times during the survey period when they have actually seen increases in trade for various reasons, and also even more dramatic dips.

"The increase is where exports are actually getting stockpiled... but earlier in September we actually had a decrease of down to 60%. That's where I think people were really hit by the shock of it, so that's the immediate impact where they're trying to figure out how they should respond to this. We did start to see it improve a little bit towards the end of September."

She describes the survey as giving an 'early glimpse' into the impact of the US tariffs, with now being the time that local merchants need to pivot and figure out their strategies, before a view of what the long-term  effect is going to be.

Like many other countries in a similar position, Cooper says, South Africa is responding by looking at how they can negotiate and where they can win points for their SME merchants.

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