G20 snub: SA’s global influence remains intact as alternative forums open doors

South Africa's exclusion from the G20 summit in Miami next year has left many wondering what this means for the country's global influence.

The United States, as the host nation, has the right to invite or exclude countries from the G20 summit, explains Professor Danny Bradlow, an international relations expert at the University of Pretoria. They cannot, however, exclude South Africa as a permanent member.

"They don't have any right to decide who the members of the 20 are," he says. "They’re just one member, and all the other members participate." However, he says the US can effectively prevent South Africa from attending by not issuing visas or inviting them to the meeting.

Bradlow suggests that South Africa will participate in future summits.

"We remain a member of the G20, and, presumably, in 2027, when the UK becomes the president after the US, they would not follow this example, and they would invite South Africa again."

The exclusion from the G20 summit is sparking concerns about the impact on South Africa's trade relations with the US. Bradlow warns that if the situation doesn' improve, South Africa may face higher tariffs on some of its exports, particularly in the minerals sector. "We're not going to get any more aid from the US," he says. "But I don't think that's such a big issue for us."

Despite the challenges, Bradlow remains optimistic about South Africa's ability to navigate this situation. He suggests that the country can still participate in other international forums, such as the G7, which is chaired by France next year, or through regional forums in Africa. "There are many other ways in which South Africa can advance its agenda beyond the G20.”

The exclusion from the G20 summit is also sparking concerns about the state of South Africa-US relations.

Bradlow notes that the situation s complex and multifaceted, with issues such as trade, minerals, and human rights at play. "I think the fact that South Africa will not be there this year will concern other countries," he says. "I would be surprised if any country withdrew in support of South Africa, but I suspect many of them will make statements later this month protesting against the treatment of South Africa."

Bradlow emphasises the importance of maintaining diplomatic relations with the US, despite the current challenges. "The relationship will continue," he says. "It's obviously more complicated and with more tension, but South Africa has an interest in continuing to negotiate and maintain relations with the US, and I think vice versa as well."

Click below to listen to Bradlow explain the complex issues at play: