Weak ANC mobilisation, DA power struggles cloud election outlook

The African National Congress's 114th birthday celebrations in the North West this past weekend have raised fresh questions about the party’s ability to mobilise support, after it failed to fill a 20,000-seat stadium.

"I think it's indicative of just how disorganised the ANC has been in the North West province. Not too long ago, parts of the provincial government were put under administration and caretakership of the national cabinet. I think the ANC continues to be weak if you look at its electoral performance in the North West, one of those vulnerable provinces where the ANC is most likely to dip below 50% in the 2029 elections," says political analyst Lukhona Mnguni.

He also criticises the ANC for recycling the same policy priorities year after year, arguing the party is not short of ideas but struggling to implement its promises.

"The ANC has become intellectually weak over the past two decades. I think more than anything, the party is struggling to implement what it promises to do, and as a result, it has to regurgitate the same talking points because they have not been implemented; had they been implemented, they would be moving on to the next thing."

Mnguni adds that repeated calls for unity and renewal under President Cyril Ramaphosa have instead coincided with growing disunity and organisational decline, leaving voters unconvinced ahead of a pivotal local government election year.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Alliance (DA) is grappling with internal conflict as senior figures take disputes to the Public Protector ahead of a closely contested leadership congress.

Mnguni describes the standoff as a power struggle linked to leader John Steenhuisen’s efforts to consolidate authority, predicting the DA’s internal battles could shape voter perceptions as both major parties face growing scrutiny.

To listen to Mnguni in conversation with 702's Bongani Bingwa, use the audio player below: