Most Western Cape wildfires are caused by human error - Expert

As the Western Cape endures one of its busiest fire seasons in recent years, investigators are warning that most fires are not natural disasters, but human-made ones.

Authorities say the spike in fires across the province this summer has largely been driven by human activity, often through negligence rather than deliberate intent.

Speaking on the issue, fire investigator Martin le Roux from Ignis Forensic Fire Investigations and Prevention says the term ‘unnatural causes’ simply means fires that did not start on their own.

Cigarette butts can ignite fires

Le Roux confirms that a discarded cigarette can, under the right conditions, ignite a fire.

“Cigarettes burn hot enough to start fires, especially in dry grass and leaf litter,” he explains.

“On hot, windy days, the risk increases significantly.”

While research suggests the probability of a cigarette starting a wildfire is relatively low, it is not zero, and in extreme weather, even small ignition sources can have devastating consequences.

Why prosecutions are difficult

High-profile cases, including a past prosecution linked to a wildfire on Table Mountain, have highlighted how difficult it can be to secure convictions.

Le Roux says acquittals often stem from legal uncertainty, not from a lack of scientific evidence.

“Fire science clearly shows that smouldering cigarettes can start fires,” he says. “But linking a specific person to the ignition point beyond a reasonable doubt is challenging.”

How fire investigations work

Investigators begin by identifying the fire’s point of origin, examining burn patterns, ventilation, wind direction and vegetation types. Witness accounts also play a crucial role.

“You’d be surprised how often someone saw or heard something,” Le Roux says. “There is almost always information available if you look hard enough.”

Wind and weather raise the danger

The Western Cape’s climate plays a major role in both ignition and spread. Hot, dry berg winds are particularly dangerous, while strong south-easterly winds can rapidly fan flames once a fire starts.

“Strong winds don’t just spread fires – they can turn a small ignition into a major incident very quickly,” Le Roux warns.

People remain the biggest cause

While lightning does cause fires, it is far less common in the Western Cape than human-related causes.

Uncontrolled burns, cooking fires, faulty electrical connections, burning refuse, vagrancy-related fires and arson are among the most frequent sources.

A simple warning

As fires burn across areas from the Cederberg to the Garden Route, Le Roux offers a blunt reminder:

“Fires don’t need intent – they only need opportunity. Don’t give them one.”

For more information, listen to Le Roux using the audio player below: