Sharp fuel price increases likely in April as global oil uncertainty grows

South African motorists could face a sharp increase in fuel prices as tensions in the Middle East disrupt global oil markets, while supply pressures remain a possibility if geopolitical tensions worsen.

An economist says the impact may not be immediate, but a significant rise in fuel prices could arrive by next month.

Oil imports leave South Africa exposed

Professor Peter Baur, an associate professor at the University of Johannesburg’s School of Economics, said South Africa relies heavily on imported crude oil and refined fuels.

He said the country sources most of its crude oil from Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the United States and Angola.

In addition to crude oil imports, South Africa also buys refined fuel products from countries with major refining capacity, including Oman, India and the United Arab Emirates.

Baur explained that diesel accounts for the largest share of refined fuel imports at about 66%, while petrol makes up roughly 25%.

Limited local refining capacity

South Africa still has some refining capability, but it remains limited.

“We do have some refining ability available within the economy… but it’s very limited,” Baur said.

He added that because local refining capacity is restricted, South Africa remains heavily dependent on a consistent flow of fuel imports to meet domestic demand.

Stockpile concerns

Fuel storage capacity is another concern.

According to Baur, earlier policy documents refer to stockpiles of about three months, but these reserves can fluctuate depending on factors such as seasonal demand and the timing of imports.

“Private companies will obviously have their stockpiles,” he said, adding that availability can shift depending on when shipments are loaded and offloaded.

Could South Africa run out of fuel?

Baur said fuel shortages are possible, though they are more likely to be linked to distribution disruptions rather than a complete lack of supply.

“Yes, there are possibilities of fuel shortages,” he said.

He explained that much of the global oil trade moves through key shipping routes, and disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions could affect deliveries.

However, Baur said South Africa has alternative suppliers.

“There are alternative markets for South Africa again… importing from the US and other regions, [with] greater reliance on India, for example.”

Global uncertainty could push prices higher

Even if alternative supplies are secured, Baur warned that prices will likely rise.

He pointed to the example of Europe’s response to gas supply disruptions during the Ukraine crisis, where alternative sources were found within months.

However, he said the shift to new suppliers often comes at a higher cost.

“How that’s going to translate to the consumer is going to be rather questionable because then the price now suddenly becomes a significant question mark.”

With global markets uncertain and no clear timeline for easing tensions, Baur said the duration and intensity of the crisis will determine how severely South Africa’s fuel prices and supplies are affected.

For more information, listen to Baur using the audio player below: