Diesel shock: price could hit R40 a litre in May as oil fears surge

South Africans are bracing for more pain at the pumps as fears grow that escalating tensions in the Middle East could push fuel prices even higher in the coming weeks.

Fresh developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil route, have raised concerns about supply disruptions, with knock-on effects expected for inflation and the cost of living in South Africa.

Strait of Hormuz tensions raise global oil concerns

The United States Navy has reportedly moved to stop traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane for global oil supplies.

At the same time, diplomatic efforts are underway, with Pakistan reportedly proposing a second round of talks between the United States and Iran before the end of a ceasefire period.

US Vice President JD Vance said some progress had been made during marathon negotiations, including discussions around removing nuclear material from Iran and preventing future uranium enrichment.

However, uncertainty remains high, with ongoing tensions involving Israel, the United States and Iran raising fears of a wider conflict.

Legality concerns as global powers act

Questions have also been raised about the legality of restricting access to the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the Chief Economist at Econometrix, Dr Azar Jammine, neither the US nor Iran is entitled to block the strategic waterway.

“No, he's not entitled in the same way as the Iranians are not entitled to block the Strait of Hormuz,” Jammine said.

He added that European countries have been reluctant to get involved, arguing that freedom of navigation should be respected.

South Africans feel the pressure at the pumps

For South Africans, the biggest concern is the impact on fuel prices and everyday costs.

A sharp increase in fuel prices in April has already hit consumers, although government measures offered some relief.

But more pain could be on the way.

“There’s a likelihood that there will be another big increase at the beginning of May, especially in the cost of diesel, which could take it up close to R40 a litre,” Jammine warned.

Cost of living fears intensify

Rising fuel prices are expected to feed into broader inflation, pushing up the cost of goods and services across the economy.

For many South Africans already struggling to make ends meet, the prospect of further increases is adding to anxiety.

With global tensions showing no clear sign of easing, concerns are growing that the situation could spiral further, with direct consequences for household budgets.

Discover more: Strait of Hormuz crisis and global oil fears

— Trump says the US will soon begin a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

US President Donald Trump orders a naval blockade, sharply escalating tensions and raising fears of major oil supply disruption.

— Why a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could hit the world economy

Markets on edge as experts warn a prolonged blockade could push fuel prices higher and disrupt global supply chains.

— Rising oil prices reveal cracks in South Africa’s diesel-driven economy

How escalating tensions are exposing South Africa’s reliance on diesel, and why consumers are feeling the squeeze.

— Russia and China veto UN resolution to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Global divisions deepen as key powers block efforts to reopen one of the world’s most critical oil routes.

— Jet fuel supplies to take months to recover from war disruption: IATA

Energy markets remain under pressure, with warnings that fuel supply recovery could take months after disruptions.

For more detailed information, listen to Jammine on 702/CapeTalk using the audio player below: