South Africa's food prices on edge as El Niño risk rises with oil costs

Stephen Grootes speaks to Thabile Nkunjana, Agricultural Economist about the outlook for food prices as the risk of an El Niño coincides with rising fuel and fertiliser costs linked to Middle East tensions.

Listen to the interview in the audio player below. 

South Africa may be heading into a familiar, but potentially more severe cycle of food price pressure, as the risk of an El Niño weather pattern coincides with rising fuel and fertiliser costs linked to Middle East tensions.

For Southern Africa, that typically means hotter and drier weather, raising the risk of lower crop yields

According to agricultural economist Thabile Nkunjana, the combination of climate risk and global energy shocks creates a heightened threat to food inflation.

He warns that rising fuel prices, driven by global oil market disruptions, have already started to filter through the food value chain.

Speaking to Stephen Grootes on The Money Show, Nkunjana says while food prices may appear stable now, cost pressures are building beneath the surface.

He adds that if El Niño conditions reduce crop yields at the same time that input costs rise, the result could be a sharp increase in food inflation.

"Even if we do have a larger crop, like Brazil or the U.S. Those countries are massive, and huge in terms of their maize production, those are the countries that have a direct and huge influence on us."

- Thabile Nkunjana, agricultural economist 

"Fuel does play a crucial part, in production by the way...it is something we are really monitoring."

- Thabile Nkunjana, agricultural economist 

Scroll to the top of the article to listen to the full interview,