Airlines hit hard as Middle East conflict impacts travel, Trump forecasts weeks more of Iran war

The conflict in the Middle East as Iran retaliates against America's allies after the US and Israel unleashed strikes on the country, has huge repercussions not only for geopolitics but for a number of sectors.

Shipping has been disrupted, with oil prices spiking and markets falling.

The aviation industry was one of the first impacted by the prospect of the outbreak of World War III.

Thousands of passengers have been stranded around the world as airlines cancelled or diverted flights in the Middle East.

And US President Donald Trump has stated that the Iran war projected to last 4 to 5 weeks, could go "far longer".

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Stephen Grootes interviews Guy Leitch, aviation analyst and former editor of SA Flyer Magazine.

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He says the current disruption to air travel is second only to the COVID-19 massive grounding.

"It's become huge and I'm afraid the optimism I articulated yesterday is now all but shattered, because I was looking at Etihad and Emirates getting back in the air and they're just not. And with Trump saying this is expected to carry on for weeks, the signs aren't good at all."

Referring to any contingency plans, Leitch points out that most of the airlines have been operating at probably more than 100% capacity because there's been an industry-wide shortage of new aircraft, mostly due to supply chain constraints.

"Boeing and Airbus are massively behind on deliveries, so the airlines have been working their aircraft flat out."

What he finds particularly interesting is that airlines have left their planes on the ground where they are, with no attempt to reposition them.

"I think they were hoping there would be a moment where they could press the start button and everything, almost like a train set, would start working again. That no longer seems to be likely at this stage."

He also reflects on the need to look at the broader implications for the aviation industry.

"Already the situation in Ukraine had constrained the flow of traffic; then the further hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan further narrowed the corridor. And now this Iran war has really clamped it down - 30-40% of the world's airline traffic flows through that area of the Middle East... We've got people sleeping on the floors of airports literally from East to West, everywhere."

Scroll up to the audio player to listen to the full conversation with Guy Leitch