DA poll suggests ANC support drops below 30% ahead of 2026 elections

702's Bongani Bingwa chats to Election Analyst, Dawie Scholtz and Director at the Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation, Professor Siphamandla Zondi.

Listen to their conversation in the audio clip below:

A new poll commissioned by the Democratic Alliance (DA) suggests the African National Congress' (ANC’s) national support has slipped below 30%, with the DA rising to 28%. 

The survey, which has sparked debate among analysts, also shows the DA leading in key metros like Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, and eThekwini, indicating a possible shift in urban voting patterns. 

Scholtz believes the trend of ANC underperformance, especially in local government elections, makes these figures plausible. 

"They [DA] like to release polling when it looks particularly good for them, but I don't think that means these numbers are totally cooked or wildly off the mark, to be perfectly honest."

- Dawie Scholtz, Election Analyst 

He notes that declining voter turnout among ANC supporters and the party’s weakening hold in urban areas could well mean the ruling party performs even worse than in the last national election.

"The DA has historically not massively benefitted from ANC voters who move away from the ANC, they typically go to EFF, MK etc and one of the huge questions is whether the DA's stint in national government, where it's getting a lot of media coverage, it's delivering certain things in certain ministries, whether that is going to translate into increased potential for the DA with former ANC voters. That is, I think, the single biggest variable."  

- Dawie Scholtz, Election Analyst 

Scholtz added that the most surprising aspect is the DA’s reported surge, which, if accurate, would represent a historic realignment.

"The DA numbers are also really dramatic... 28% nationally would be historic, that would be like a massive earthquake - like a huge surge for the DA."

- Dawie Scholtz, Election Analyst 

Zondi says DA-commissioned polls often exaggerate their own strength. 

He confirms the ANC’s decline is real but warns that the DA’s projected gains may be overstated. 

"A lot of it is not even rocket science. The trends already tell us what the polls only just confirm. What will be the difference is the extent to which they anticipate. Some of the polls, especially those generated by the DA, they exaggerate the DA's performance and are accurate about the ANC's underperformance and that's the trend we continue to see." 

- Professor Siphamandla Zondi, Director - Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation

"We should take the poll trends seriously, but the exaggeration... we must take them with a pinch of salt."

 - Professor Siphamandla Zondi, Director - Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation

With the ANC’s future uncertain and President Cyril Ramaphosa’s leadership failing to reverse the party’s decline, Zondi believes that only bold, systemic reforms, not individual personalities, can restore its credibility.

"[The ANC] has to act more boldly, more daringly, if it wants to regain its support base. Otherwise, we will see it going down further. This poll should be taken seriously because the ANC has not done anything significant to signal to the voters that it heard their cries, it received their signal, and that's a pretty damning one for the current president and leadership."

 - Professor Siphamandla Zondi, Director - Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation

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