New energy plan aims to triple South Africa's nuclear power by 2039

South Africa’s newly approved Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) aims to chart a major shift in the country’s future energy mix, with a strong focus on nuclear and gas power alongside renewables.

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa recently announced that the plan aims to add 5,200 megawatts of new nuclear capacity by 2039, effectively tripling the existing output from Koeberg.

The IRP also targets reducing coal’s dominance in electricity generation from 58% to 27% by the same year.

Energy expert Matthew Cruise says the inclusion of nuclear marks a return to ambitions once thought too costly, though its long timelines and heavy upfront costs remain major hurdles.

He notes that nuclear provides steady, low-carbon power to complement renewables, and investment might shift away from quicker-to-build wind, solar, and battery projects if funding priorities are not clearly managed.

"There are concerns that there'll be a focus on investments that could be flowing into more renewable energy going down, like wind and solar and batteries, and not having that capital then flowing into those renewable energy projects and rather flowing it into nuclear when it should be really being deployed in the immediate."

The plan also envisions 6,000 megawatts of gas power by 2030 and 16,000 by 2039, though Cruise warns of uncertainty around gas supply and infrastructure.

He adds that achieving the IRP’s vision will depend heavily on foreign investment, with the government estimating a total funding requirement of R2.2 trillion.

"It's like a puzzle that all needs to come together, at the right time, for this plan to work. At least we now have the plan, it's now visible, a lot of foreign direct investment is needed for this."

To listen to Cruise in conversation with 702 and CapeTalk's Africa Melane, use the audio player below: