Why we should be concerned that SA's PMI hit its lowest level since 2020

Stephen Grootes speaks to ABSA economist Sello Sekele about the sharp decline in South Africa’s manufacturing sector in November, as the Absa PMI plunged to its lowest level since April 2020.

Listen to the interview in the audio player below.

South Africa’s manufacturing sector is facing mounting pressure in 2025, with the latest Stats SA figures showing a 3.7% drop in jobs in the past quarter and a 1.5% decline year-on-year.

Adding to the concern, Absa’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced with the Bureau for Economic Research, fell sharply to 42 in November, down from 49.2 in October.

The Absa PMI is a monthly survey index that measures the health of South Africa's manufacturing sector, providing a snapshot of business conditions.

This marks the second straight month below the 50-point expansion threshold and the weakest reading since April 2020, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The sector remains a major employer, with more than 1.6 million South Africans working in manufacturing as of Q3 2025, underscoring the potential impact of the downturn.

Speaking to Stephen Grootes on The Money Show, ABSA economist Sello Sekele says the main decline came from the domestic market.

"We saw new sales orders, which measures demand, fell sharply....as demand falls, output tends to fall,"said Sekele.

The way it fell, it took the headline PMI to levels that we last saw in Covid-19 times, so it just goes to show how weak business conditions have been in the manufacturing sector."

"Yes the employment index went up...but employment continued to fall, but at a slower rate. So the employment story still remains quite bleak," added Sekele.

Scroll to the top of the article to listen to the full interview.