Business confidence in SA ticks up in fourth quarter following decline

Business confidence in South Africa ticked up in the fourth quarter of 2025, following two consecutive quarters of decline.

The latest RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose by five points to 44 in Q4, putting confidence three points above its long-term average. 

This suggests that 44% of respondents are satisfied with prevailing business conditions.

The uptick was helped by improvements across five of the six sectors surveyed.

The only sector where confidence declined was among building contractors, where sentiment moved lower by seven points to 39. 

The key positive is that the improvement is broad-based, says Isaah Mhlanga, chief economist at RMB.

"Even among building contractors, the only sector to dip this quarter, while sentiment declined, activity did not. Sentiment is also close to its long-term average."

While the improvement in the different sub-sectors would see different dynamics at play, Mhlanga does highlight some overall commonalities.

These include contained inflation and also SA's new lowered inflation target, as well as interest rate cuts along with the expectation of more cuts in 2026.

The economist also highlights the credit rating upgrade from S&P Global, and a decline in debt servicing costs following the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS).

Then there is the modest Q3 growth reflected in the latest GDP numbers, where he emphasizes the first rise in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) for this year.

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"That says we have turned a corner, the trajectory's positive; even though it's not yet at a pace that we should celebrate."

Scroll up to the audio player to listen to Mhlanga's analysis