MANDY WIENER | 2026 A year when leadership will matter most 

South Africa heads into its 32nd year as a democratic country with uncertainty over the leadership of its political, prosecutorial and law enforcement institutions.

But a buoyed currency, improved economic outlook and strengthening public private participation offers a streak of silver on the horizon.

The three biggest parties in the country will enter 2026, wrestling with succession crises.

Most immediately, the Democratic Alliance is set to hold its Federal Congress in April and incumbent John Steenhuisen, who navigated his party into government for the first time ever, is under political pressure.

He has been embroiled in a credit card fast-food controversy and is in the midst of an internal soap opera with Dion George over his spending.

Steenhuisen has spoken to me of the ‘Liberal Taliban’ within the party and Nomvula Mokonyane describes the DA as ‘more divided than the ANC’, demonstrating that it could be a bruising affair.

The big question for 2026 will be whether Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis opts to run for party leadershipagainst his mate.

Succession in former President Jacob Zuma’s MK party is also in doubt with his anointed successor Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla facing a criminal trial for the scandal of recruiting party members for alleged military training in Ukraine.

The entire saga stinks of a coup plot but the net result is uncertainty over what happens to MK when Zuma goes.

The leadership battle that will likely consume headlines over 2026 will be that of President of the ANC.

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Historically, leadership races have wrought havoc on the party and the country leaving a trail of detritus in its wake, reminiscent of a full scale hurricane. The ANC is deeply factionalised, despite its public claims of ‘renewal’ and unification.

While there are stillnearly two full years until the ANC’s elective conference in December 2027, we know from experience that campaigning starts early in a not so subtle way, with faux humility and insistence that ‘the branches must decide’ and serving ‘at the party’s discretion’.

Expect no one to outright announce their ambitions but to push for the ‘balance of power’ to be in their favour.

A recent Social Research Foundation poll of general voters puts billionaire soccer boss Patrice Motsepe in the lead with 23%, followed by ANC SG Fikile Mbalula at 19% and then Deputy President Paul Mashatile with 18%.

Since the poll was conducted, two women Thoko Didiza and Nomvula Mokonyane have entered as contenders.

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa could also be a player. The absence of an exciting, young, dynamic emerging leader is glaring.

Like most of us in Cyril’s economy, going into Januworry for South Africa is a precarious balancing act.

The unemployment rate sits at just under 32%, food inflation is high despite edging down slightly and the rand has strengthened, helped along by a weakened US dollar.

Since the GNU came into power eighteen months ago, there has been general positivity, the fiscal position is improving with bonds doing well, commodity prices elevated and a successful hosting of the G20.

South Africa's credit rating saw a positive shift in late 2025, with S&P Global upgrading its foreign currency rating, marking the first upgrade in two decades, though still below investment grade.

It will be crucial that last year’s chaotic and damaging budget process is not repeated and that the Finance Minister’s plan to better shepherd the fiscal policy will be effective.

But the tumultuous relationship with the United States hangs like a threatening Highveld thunderstorm. South Africa has diversified trade partners and is now sending stone fruit to Asia and the like, but Donald Trump’s obsession with bullying SA through tariffs and foreign policy could cost on the pocket.

South Africa’s exclusion from the G20 being hosted in America is also expected to continue playing out in public skirmishes.

South Africa has also had to come to terms with the reality that it is going to have to get stuff done itself. This has manifested in much better collaboration between the public and private sectors, best illustrated by the success of Operation Vulindlela.

The joint initiative of the Presidency and National Treasury is now in its second phase as it has shown progress in the reform of electricity, freight logistics, water, visas, local government and digital infrastructure.

There’s been over a year of no load shedding and major improvements in renewable-energy projects, but progress on local government reform has been slower as mismanagement and corruption at local government level remains crippling.

This will be the primary political battlefield for 2026 as the country heads into a local government election sometime between November and February of 2027.

The majority of major metros will end up with coalition governments and this will mean negotiated deals. If we have learnt anything from the GNU negotiations it is that politicians must place the interests of the people first instead of prioritizing political power.

Expect the fights to get very ugly and for allies in a national arrangement to be facing one another down at municipal level. The inflated influence of kingmaker parties such as the NFP in eThekweni and the Patriotic Alliance in Johannesburg could be on full display.

The DA has rolled out its big gun in Helen Zille for Joburg and the ANC is yet to reveal its hand on who to lead the campaign against her. The incumbent Dada Morero will be no match for the Gogo in the economic heartland of the country where residents are at boiling point with failing infrastructure and shoddy service delivery.

The political fallout of the ongoing inquiries into law enforcement could also be significant as the dominoes have begun to fall.

The Madlanga Judicial Commission and the inquiry underway by the Parliamentary Ad-Hoc committee into corruption in the police, both have plenty of runway into 2026.

There are still many witnesses with cases to make and reputations to defend that are due to give evidence. That means further damage to the public’s trust relationship with law enforcement and a continued erosion of confidence in a police service that has been captured and corrupted.

The political implications of this for the ANC should not be underestimated and it could cost the party at the polls come the local government elections – a strategic backfire for Ramaphosa.

This also means that democratic institutions will have to be increasingly supported and defended in the toxic climate of conspiracies. Civil society, the judiciary, investigative journalism, will all require buttressing.

The targeting of whistleblowers and the alarming increase in targeted assassinations must be a priority in 2026 and the Department of Justice and Constitutional Affairs must urgently expedite whistleblower legislation that it has been promising for years now.

The leadership of the police, specifically the Hawks, and the National Prosecuting Authority, will also be key. There is still no replacement announced for General Godfrey Lebeya at the Hawks, collateral damage perhaps from the ongoing inquiries.

Who replaces Adv Shamila Batohi at the National Prosecuting Authority is going to be one of the most anticipated appointments of the year and the implications of the decision will be far-reaching.

Across politics, the economy, trade, foreign affairs, law enforcement and all spheres of society, the quality and effectiveness of good strong leadership will be what defines 2026.