Analyst warns of increased electricity theft following NERSA tariff hike

Energy analyst Chris Yelland says theft and non-payment by consumers and municipalities will increase as a result of the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA)'s 8% electricity price increase over the next two years.

NERSA recently approved an 8% electricity price increase for the next two years as a result of its errors in calculating tariffs for the 2025/26 to 2027/28 financial years.

NERSA says the state utility’s prices will now rise 8.76% in April 2026, and 8.83% in April 2027, instead of 5.36% and 6.19%.

Yelland says the tariff hikes will have consequences.

"There are two factors at play. First of all, theft and non-payment increase by consumers and by municipalities alike. So Eskom's arrears are likely to grow," Yelland said.

Yelland says the increased tariffs will also have an impact on the economy.

"It just means that people start either shutting down or moving to alternative energy suppliers or going off the grid completely," Yelland added.

Yelland says NERSA's mistake in miscalculating the initial tariff increase amounts to regulatory failure.