Jobs numbers improve, but rise in discouraged work seekers shows 'unemployment becoming structural'

South Africa's official unemployment rate dropped in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 31,4%.

That's a decrease of 0,5 of a percentage point from 31,9% in the third quarter of the year.

The number of employed persons grew by 44 000 to 17,1 million, according to Statistics SA's latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey, or QLFS. (Click here for the key findings)

At the same time there was a decrease of 172 000 in the number of unemployed persons to 7,8 million compared with Q3:2025 results.

In terms of the expanded definition, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter increases to 12.4 million - 42% of the working age population.

Stephen Grootes gets comment from economist Sifiso Skenjana, MD of ESG Analytics.

Skenjana uses the 'Beauty and the Beast' analogy to make sense of the uptick in jobs numbers, which is essentially good news for the country.

He highlights the jobs improvement in the agricultural sector as particularly encouraging - that is up 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, and 2.8% year-on-year.

"That is also on the back of a number of headwinds they had along with issues around Agoa and around the Liberation Day 30% tariffs, so to see resilience in that sector is incredibly important." 

On the 'beast' side of the equation, Skenjana notes that discouraged job seekers  account for 80,5% of the potential labour force.

"If I just compare from 2015 when the number of long-term unemployed people was about 66% and now it's 80% - that tells you that unemployment is becoming structural."

"The numbers are actually reinforcing that this is really not a good story to tell beyond some of the gains that we've seen in the agri-sector."

For more of Skenjana's analysis, listen to the interview audio at the top of the article