Understanding crime stats: Does perception match reality?

CapeTalk’s Lester Kiewit speaks with Dr Simon Howell, Senior Lecturer at the Centre of Criminology at UCT.

Listen below:

Crime is a big problem in South Africa, but it can be difficult to interpret what the data is telling us.

If we look at crime just by the numbers, it can paint a misleading picture of the reality.

For example, a large urban precinct may record 10,000 crimes in a year, while a smaller rural precinct records just 500.

Looking at this at face value, it seems the urban precinct is more dangerous.

However, if we take into account that the urban precinct has a population of 300,000 and the rural has 5,000, we see a very different picture.

This is why we need to look at the crime rate per capita, or the rate of crime per 100,000 people.

Adjusting the data to the number of crimes relative to the population, paints a more accurate picture of crime hotspots, risks to individuals, and allows authorities to track real change.

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When looking at crime this way, Howell says crime has remained stable or gone down in the last few years.

“Of course, people’s experiences of crime may be very different.”

- Dr Simon Howell, Senior Lecturer at the Centre of Criminology at UCT 

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