Malawians head to polls in economic despair

LILONGWE - Malawians vote for a new president next week in an election clouded by economic hardship as incumbent Lazarus Chakwera squares off against his predecessor in a race where few voters see a real alternative.

Three of the 17 candidates for the September 16 polls have already served as president of the southern African nation and another is the current vice president.

While the list of contenders is unusually crowded, voters have lost faith in the political class to deliver meaningful change to one of the poorest countries in the world, analysts say.

"Whether it is Chakwera or (his predecessor Peter) Mutharika, nothing changes for us. It's like choosing between two sides of the same coin," said Victor Shawa, a 23-year-old unemployed man in the capital Lilongwe.

Optimism that accompanied Chakwera coming to power has long since been eroded by runaway inflation of around 30 percent, chronic fuel and foreign exchange shortages and corruption scandals touching senior government figures.

"People feel trapped," said Michael Jana, a Malawian national and political scientist at South Africa' Wits University.

"The economy is in crisis, the politicians are the same, and many Malawians don't believe this election will change their lives," he told AFP.

Chakwera, a 70-year-old evangelical preacher, wants a second term after a mixed performance during a first run handed to him only after the 2019 election result was cancelled over rigging claims.

The 2020 rerun gave Chakwera, leader of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP), nearly 59 percent of ballots, denying a second term to Mutharika, a lawyer, from the Democratic Progressive Party who had been ahead in the tarnished first round.

"I will vote for Chakwera because he has improved road infrastructure and supported youth businesses," said 20-year-old Mervis Bodole, a small trader from central Malawi.

"But the cost of living is still too high and many of us are struggling."

Mutharika, 85, is banking on discontent with Chakwera to revive his political fortunes.

But his own term, which ran from 2014 until 2020, was marked by economic stagnation, shortages of basic goods and allegations of cronyism.

'ERODED PUBLIC TRUST'

According to a survey of 2,400 voters by the Institute of Public Opinion and Research (IPOR) released last week, Mutharika leads with 41 percent ahead of Chakwera at 31 percent.

As outright victory requires 50 percent plus one vote, analysts say a second round is all but inevitable.

Results are due a week after voting.

Joyce Banda, Malawi's only woman president (2012-2014), and Vice President Michael Usi are also running, but their chances are seen as slim and any role of kingmaker may go to former central bank governor, Dalitso Kabambe, who polls a distant third.

For most Malawians, the choice on election day -- when hundreds of local and parliamentary seats are also up for grabs -- boils down to a single issue.

"The economy, the economy, and the economy -- in that order -- is what is driving this election," said Boniface Dulani, politics lecturer at the University of Malawi.

"Inflation, fuel shortages and corruption have eroded public trust in Chakwera, whose support has nearly halved since 2020," he said.

While Chakwera has been in power, the country has been hit hard by the Covid pandemic, 2023's Cyclone Freddy that killed more than 1,200 people and successive droughts.

But critics argue that these exposed, rather than excused, the administration's lack of strategy.

"When people cannot afford food, when jobs are scarce, when inflation is out of control -- those factors influence the vote more than anything else," said Bertha Chikadza, president of the Economics Association of Malawi.

"Young people are told we are the future," Shawa said. "But when we look at these elections, all we see are the same old faces fighting for power while we fight to survive."