Consumer confidence rises in Q4, signalling a festive season boon for retailers

A rise in consumer confidence in the fourth quarter of 2025 is good news for retailers this festive season.

The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rebounded to -9 index points in Quarter 4, after falling in Q3 from -10 to -13.

This is lower than the reading for the 2024 festive season, which was -6.

The survey was conducted between 10 and 21 November 2025.

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While it does suggest that South Africans are feeling more confident about the future, the level of positive sentiment still comes in way below the longer-term average since 1994 of a negative-one figure, says FNB senior economist Siphamandla Mkhwanazi.

Encouraging developments that contributed to this "relatively positive" outcome include a stable inflation environment where food nflation dipped slightly and fuel prices came down since the last survey.

"Affordability overall has improved quite a bit and you do see that in how consumers are engaging at the shopping centres."

The firming of the rand also played a role, says Mkhwanazi, especially from the perspective of middle- to higher-income households.

At the same time, however, this bracket recorded a dip in sentiment from -11 to -12, even though these are the households that would care more about other positive developments like our first S&P ratings upgrade in nearly 20 years.

In terms of context though, Mkhwanazi does highlight that the latest interest rate cut took place on 20 November, towards the very end of the fourth quarter survey period, which means it would not yet have made much of an impact.

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