Rising fertiliser and fuel prices amid Iran war will eventually hit consumers, warns economist

There are increased warnings about the impact of rising prices of fertiliser and fuel on South African farmers due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The blockage of the key Strait of Hormuz is also leading to an increase in shipping costs, as transporters are forced to reroute.

It's estimated that 30% of global fertiliser supplies are moved via this strait which is also a key channel for oil shipments.

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About 80% of South Africa's supplies are imported and fertiliser is one of the most significant input costs in agriculture, making up 35% for grain farmers.

The recent disruptions to gas supplies and shipping have already forced fertiliser plants, which use natural gas in manufacturing, in the Gulf and beyond to shut or cut their output, as Al Jazeera reports.

There are fears of how badly the trickle-down effect of supply disruptions and price increases will impact consumers, threatening food security not only in South Africa, but globally.

While the effect won't be immediate, the pressures will eventually be passed down to consumers, says agricultural economist Thabile Nkunjana.

Announcing the latest consumer price inflation numbers this week, Stats SA said food inflation had slowed to 3,7%, from 4,4% in January.

But it seems unlikely this trend can be sustained, as Nkunjana affirms.

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"Add up all the factors at play and there could be a disaster waiting to happen.... And even when the war does end, it will take time to recover normal supplies and supply routes."

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