China scraps tariffs for all African nations except Eswatini

China’s decision to remove tariffs on exports from 53 African countries from May is being described as a potential turning point for the continent’s trade prospects, but analysts warn the real gains will depend on how quickly African economies respond.

The announcement, made around the African Union summit in Addis Ababa, comes as global trade tensions intensify between the United States and China, placing Africa in the middle of a shifting economic landscape.

A chance to rebalance trade with China

China is already Africa’s biggest trading partner, but trade flows remain uneven.

Economists note that Africa exports roughly $150 billion worth of goods to China, while importing about $81 billion, a pattern many hope the zero-tariff move could help change.

The removal of tariffs expands an existing policy that already grants zero-tariff access to imports from about 33 African countries.

However, not all states will benefit.

Eswatini is expected to be excluded because it maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan, an issue that could now come under fresh scrutiny.

Implications for South Africa and agriculture

For South Africa, economists believe agriculture could be among the biggest winners if exporters move quickly.

Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo has suggested local producers could gain significantly if they position themselves to access Chinese markets more effectively.

The shift also comes as South Africa faces uncertainty in its trade relationship with the United States.

Although the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been extended for another year, analysts warn that expanded US tariffs imposed last year could limit the country’s benefits.

Africa is caught between global superpowers

With the US and China competing for influence and resources across the continent, experts say African governments may now have a rare chance to renegotiate their position in global trade.

Commodity markets highlight the stakes. Rising gold prices have benefited some countries like Ghana, but cocoa farmers in Ghana and the Ivory Coast are still struggling with poor returns, showing how export opportunities do not automatically translate into broad economic gains.

China’s long-term strategy

Observers say the tariff move reflects China’s patient geopolitical approach to Africa.

The real question now is whether African economies can move fast enough to convert the policy shift into jobs, exports and growth, or whether the opportunity will pass them by.

For more information, listen to Africa correspondent Crystal Orderson using the audio player below: