Some economists expect economic recovery to continue in Q4, throughout 2026

Some economists expect economic recovery to continue in the final quarter of 2025 and throughout 2026, following more signs of improvement.

The country’s economy expanded by half a percent in the third quarter, marking the fourth consecutive rise in economic activity.

This follows a revised increase of 0.9% in the three months prior.

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Growth in the quarter was largely led by mining and agriculture, while the electricity, gas and water sectors contracted.

On the production side, stable power supply, smoother logistics, and reasonable growth in domestic demand will underpin activity in most industries in the coming quarters.

Economists at Nedbank believe consumer-orientated services will provide the momentum, bolstered by subdued inflation and lower interest rates.

Stronger tourism will further complement domestic demand, while agriculture, mining, and construction are also expected to contribute.

Nedbank said that healthy field and horticultural crops will sustain agriculture, offsetting the drag from animal farming brought on by foot-and-mouth disease.

After a good quarter this time around, the outlook for mining is murkier.

“The slow recovery in construction is expected to continue as the upturn in fixed investment gathers moderate pace. In contrast, manufacturing will remain under pressure, hurt by higher US [United States] tariffs compared to South Africa's main competitors, the end of AGOA [African Growth and Opportunity Act], and increased competition from imports in the domestic market,” said Nedbank.”

Economists at FNB believe the latest GDP print presents an upside risk to the bank’s 1% growth forecast for 2025 of around 0.2–0.3-percentage points but warns that concerns remain, including weakness in private sector fixed investment, a volatile agricultural sector and ongoing global trade tensions.

“We will reassess our macroeconomic projections in the coming days,” said FNB.