SA–China trade gap widens as Chinese vehicle imports surge

Stephen Grootes speaks to Dr Paulina Mamogobo, chief economist at NAAMSA about the proliferation of Chinese cars in the South African car market and how it has worsened the trade gap between China and South Africa. They also reflect on solutions to address the increasing trade gap.

Listen to the interview in the audio player below.

South Africa’s trade deficit with China continues to widen, driven in part by a rapid increase in imported Chinese vehicles that are reshaping the local automotive market.

Industry data shows Chinese manufacturers now account for a growing portion of new vehicle sales, particularly in entry-level and mid-range segments.

Recent trade data shows vehicle imports from China rising sharply over the past year, as Chinese automakers expand their footprint in South Africa with competitively priced petrol, hybrid and electric models. The surge has added pressure to an already skewed trade relationship, with South Africa importing significantly more from China than it exports.

Economists warn that while lower-cost vehicles benefit consumers and help ease inflationary pressures, the long-term implications for local manufacturing and trade sustainability are more complex.

South Africa’s automotive industry is a major employer and export earner, and increased import penetration could place pressure on domestic production if not offset by stronger exports.

Speaking to Stephen Grootes on The Money Show, Paulina Mamogobo, chief economist at NAAMSA says it's going to be increasingly harder for South Africa to compete against China's automotive sector. 

"Even with our production an what we are able to produce locally, competing with the Chinese influx, and this is what we call the Chinese aggressive growth, is going to be quite significantly difficult."

- Paulina Mamogobo, chief economist - NAAMSA

"Just in 2026, we're expecting an auto growth in China of over 25%, that's about 7 million cars, just in 2026. So where will that be going? In markets such as our market, which is the African market."

- Paulina Mamogobo, chief economist - NAAMSA

"In 2024, we had 8 Chinese brands reporting to NAAMSA. 2025, that grew by an additional 6 brands as well. In 2026 we're actually expecting that we will have even those brands expending their derivative more than 6 times what was reported in 2025."

- Paulina Mamogobo, chief economist - NAAMSA  

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