Mixed signals in Iran conflict rattle global markets, with ripple effects felt in South Africa

Stephen Grootes speaks to Azar Jammine, Chief Economist at Econometrix and Izak Odendaal, Investment Strategist at Old Mutual Wealth about the latest developments in the escalating Iran conflict, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary pause on planned strikes targeting Iranian power infrastructure, citing progress in talks that Tehran has firmly denied.

Listen to the interview in the audio player below. 

Global markets are swinging sharply as mixed messaging from Washington and Tehran injects fresh uncertainty into an already volatile geopolitical landscape.

The latest development is a temporary pause by Donald Trump on planned strikes against Iranian power infrastructure initially calmed nerves. Oil prices fell and equity markets staged a partial rebound after the announcement of “constructive talks”.

But Iran quickly refuted the claim that any meaningful negotiations are underway, leaving investors uncertain.

The closure and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil trade, has already removed a significant portion of supply from the market.

For South Africa, the impact is more direct, and more painful.

As a net importer of fuel, the country is highly exposed to global oil price movements and currency volatility. A spike in crude prices, combined with a weaker rand, translates almost immediately into higher petrol and diesel prices.

Speaking to Stephen Grootes on The Money Show, Izak Odendaal, Investment Strategist at Old Mutual Wealth says the uncertainty around the war continues to impact the markets.

"From the beginning of this conflict it wasn't quite clear what he's (Donald Trump) war aims were. So it's very difficult for market participants to get a sense of how far we are from achieving those goals."

- Izak Odendaal, investment strategist - Old Mutual Wealth

"Trump has not been consistent in his messaging, neither has Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, so it's very difficult to know if we are any closer to the end of this conflict now, than we were yesterday or a week prior."

- Izak Odendaal, investment strategist - Old Mutual Wealth

"Remember before this war, there was a feeling amongst many that there was a glut of oil around the world and that prices could fall as far as $50 a barrel. That image might return in the medium to longer-term, but certainly not in the shorter-term."

- Azar Jammine, chief economist - Econometrix

"There has been much disruption to production facilities amongst oil producers, and that will be with us for some time, so we're not going to rush back to $60 a barrel any time soon."

- Azar Jammine, chief economist - Econometrix

Scroll to the top of the article to listen to the full interview.