ANC infighting sparks fears of electoral fallout in stronghold provinces

Deepening divisions within the African National Congress (ANC) are raising fresh concerns about the party’s internal stability, with analysts warning the fallout could hurt its electoral performance.

A political analyst says the infighting linked to provincial elective conferences reflects deeper structural problems within the party’s internal processes.

Conference processes under scrutiny

Political analyst Dr Ongama Mthika said disputes over branch eligibility and conference procedures point to manipulation rather than democratic contestation.

“The administration of membership in the ANC and the administration of processes towards conferences are not political,” Mthika said.

He added that internal processes are influenced by party elites seeking to control outcomes.

“The voting choice of the branches gets to be known before time. That’s not a democracy… that’s manipulation of outcomes by the party elites.”

Mthika said both factions involved in the disputes appear to have experience with such tactics, fuelling ongoing conflict.

Risk to electoral performance

The analyst warned that the divisions could have real electoral consequences, particularly in provinces where the ANC traditionally dominates.

He pointed to the Eastern Cape and Limpopo as regions where the party faces little external threat but could be weakened by internal fractures.

“When it is unable to manage its own internal politics like this, it’s sowing the seeds for division and… electoral failure,” he said.

Mthika noted that past election outcomes have often been shaped by how losing factions respond, including whether they leave the party or mobilise outside it.

Leadership questions emerge

The conduct of ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula has also come under scrutiny.

Mthika said allegations suggest Mbalula may not be acting impartially, with claims his interests in future leadership contests could influence his stance.

“The allegations… are that he is not acting as a neutral, impartial party,” Tinka said.

Conferences disrupted and contested

The ANC’s provincial elective conference in the Eastern Cape has been put on hold, while in Limpopo, proceedings are continuing after a court challenge was dismissed.

The developments highlight ongoing tensions within the party as it prepares for future electoral contests.

For more information, listen to Mthika on 702/CapeTalk’s The Midday Report using the audio player below: