ANALYSIS | Malema's criminal case won't cost him political currency

Sentencing proceedings against Julius Malema have begun, with the state seeking a 15-year prison sentence following his conviction under the Firearms Control Act.

The case relates to a 2018 rally where Malema fired a rifle in a packed stadium.

The outcome could have major legal and political consequences, including the potential loss of his seat in Parliament.

High stakes as sentencing gets underway

The court is weighing aggravating and mitigating factors, with the state arguing for the maximum sentence.

Legal expert Ulrich Roux said a 15-year sentence is unlikely, pointing to Malema’s lack of prior convictions.

Instead, he expects a suspended sentence or a fine.

“A period of imprisonment of 10 years, either wholly or partially suspended,” Roux said, could be imposed, acting as a deterrent without immediate jail time.

The court must consider Malema’s personal circumstances, the seriousness of the offence, and the broader impact on society.

Parliament seat on the line

Under Section 47 of the Constitution of South Africa, a sentence exceeding 12 months without the option of a fine could disqualify Malema from serving as an MP.

However, this would only take effect after all appeals are finalised, a process that could take years.

Even a suspended sentence could trigger the constitutional provision, depending on how it is structured.

Malema signals immediate appeal

Malema has made it clear he will challenge both the conviction and the sentence.

“If they send me to prison, I’ll appeal immediately,” he said, outlining a plan to escalate the matter to the High Court if necessary.

Legal analysts say his strategy is sound, noting he is unlikely to be denied bail pending appeal, given his consistent court attendance and public profile.

Political future uncertain but not over

Political analyst Sandile Swana said the case may not end Malema’s leadership of the Economic Freedom Fighters.

He argued that even a conviction or prison sentence would not automatically remove him as party leader.

“It’s an inconvenience… but politically it doesn’t have too much consequence,” Swana said.

He added that South Africa’s political history shows leaders can retain or even grow support after legal setbacks.

Supporters expected in numbers

Malema’s supporters are expected to gather in large numbers, framing the case as politically motivated.

The EFF has previously described the prosecution as a ‘witch hunt’.

Sentencing proceedings are expected to continue into a second day, with the outcome likely to follow thereafter.

Related: Malema sentencing battle

Malema returns to court for sentencing

Julius Malema is back in court as sentencing begins in his firearm case, with a ruling expected soon and major political consequences looming.

EFF supporters hold vigil ahead of sentencing

Supporters gathered overnight in a show of force, backing Malema and framing the case as politically motivated.

Malema outlines appeal strategy before sentencing

Malema signals he will challenge both conviction and sentence, setting up a potentially lengthy legal battle.

For more detailed information, listen to Roux and Swana on 702 using the audio player below: