Between 55% and 97% of parolees reoffend - Unclear data is undermining rehabilitation

SK

Sara-Jayne Makwala King

2 December 2025 | 14:13

Despite thousands of parolees reoffending, experts warn that the lack of a standard definition of recidivism is getting in the way of efforts to deal with the problem.

Between 55% and 97% of parolees reoffend - Unclear data is undermining rehabilitation

Photo: Pexels/RDNE Stock project

According to the Minister of Correctional Services, Dr Pieter Groenewald, more than 18,000 parolees have reoffended in the past three years.

Among the crimes committed by offenders, 209 were murder cases, and 330 were rape cases, recorded during 2024 and 2025.

Moreover, of 46,627 inmates released on parole between 2022 and 2025, over a third were arrested again.

Professor Marelize Schoeman from UNISA’s Department of Criminology and Security Science says more research is needed to understand the root causes of recidivism.

"We do not have an official recidivism rate," she says.

Schoeman says a guesstimate puts it at between 55% and 97%.

"Recidivism is not simply re-offending; it is literally an indicator of the criminal justice system's functioning and effectiveness."

She adds that because there is no standard definition of recidivism, there are multiple factors which can be used to determine the recidivism rate.

"Starting with, does it include parole violators or just people who reoffend? Should it be for the same crimes or different crimes?"

The current situation, she explains, is that accurate figures cannot be consistently gathered, compared or used to shape effective policy interventions.

"We are comparing apples and pears, and we've got a whole fruit salad going on."

As a result, Schoeman says those in the criminal justice system lack clarity on whether policing, sentencing and rehabilitation efforts are working.

And that lack of clarity hampers the ability of such agencies to deliver effective prevention services and to offer specific support to parolees post-prison release.

To listen to Schoeman in conversation with CapeTalk's Lester Kiewit, click below:

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