CHARLES MATSEKE | War in the Middle East and South Africa’s maritime moment

The escalation of tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran is rapidly reshaping global trade routes. As military confrontation spreads across key maritime corridors in the Middle East, global shipping lines are increasingly avoiding the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. The result is a dramatic reorientation of global maritime traffic and an unexpected strategic opening for South Africa.

Major shipping companies including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have already begun rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, seeking safer passage between Asia and Europe. What was once considered a longer, costlier detour is quickly becoming a necessary alternative to conflict-prone waters.

This shift places South Africa at the centre of one of the most important logistical adjustments in global trade since the Suez Canal crisis of 1956.

Ports such as Durban, Cape Town and Ngqura are experiencing a surge in vessel traffic as ships divert from the Red Sea corridor.

These ships require refuelling, maintenance, provisioning and port services, generating new revenue streams for the South African economy. For a country struggling with stagnant growth, energy shortages and logistical inefficiencies, the geopolitical disruption unfolding thousands of kilometres away could provide an unexpected economic catalyst.

But this moment is larger than a temporary shipping windfall. It speaks to South Africa’s long-standing but underutilised position as Africa’s maritime hegemon.

For centuries, the Cape sea route has served as one of the world’s most important maritime crossroads. The Portuguese recognised this strategic reality in the 15th century, long before the construction of the Suez Canal altered global shipping patterns. Today, the renewed importance of the Cape route highlights how geography continues to shape global power.

Henry Kissinger once remarked that “world order reflects the balance of power and the legitimacy of the arrangements governing it.” In periods of geopolitical stability, institutions regulate that balance. In periods of crisis, geography reasserts itself.

The current conflict in the Middle East is one such moment.

As tensions intensify across the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, the reliability of traditional maritime arteries has come into question. Insurance premiums for vessels transiting conflict zones have surged, while freight costs on disrupted routes have risen sharply. In response, shipping companies are making pragmatic decisions: bypass risk and sail south.

The beneficiary is South Africa.

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If managed effectively, this sudden rerouting could reinforce South Africa’s status as Africa’s primary logistics hub and gateway between continents. Increased vessel traffic means increased demand for port services, maritime insurance, bunkering facilities and logistical support industries. It also strengthens South Africa’s leverage within global trade networks at a time when geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping supply chains.

There are already signs of this opportunity taking shape. Transnet has begun engaging private partners to expand container capacity at the Port of Durban and improve operational efficiency. Increased shipping activity also creates incentives for long-delayed investments in port infrastructure, digital logistics systems and rail connectivity.

For South Africa, the opportunity is not merely commercial. It is strategic.

South Africa has long been described as Africa’s economic anchor state, the continent’s most industrialised economy and its most sophisticated financial and logistical hub. Yet this status has been steadily eroded by domestic infrastructure failures and governance weaknesses. Congestion in South African ports has previously forced shipping companies to bypass local facilities altogether, undermining the country’s regional influence.

The present maritime shift offers an opportunity to reverse that trajectory.

If South Africa can efficiently manage the increased traffic, it could consolidate its role as the principal maritime gateway for both global and intra-African trade. This would reinforce Pretoria’s position within both BRICS and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), positioning South African ports as key entry points for goods moving into African markets.

Geopolitical instability in the Middle East may therefore strengthen South Africa’s regional economic hegemony, provided the country can rise to the logistical challenge.

Yet the opportunity is not without risks.

South African ports are already operating under severe strain. Years of underinvestment, operational inefficiencies and infrastructure bottlenecks have left the system vulnerable to congestion. A sudden influx of diverted vessels could easily overwhelm port capacity, replicating the delays that have plagued Durban in recent years.

The economic benefits of increased maritime traffic could quickly evaporate if ships face long berthing delays or unreliable port services.

The conflict also carries macroeconomic risks. Rising global oil prices’, a common consequence of Middle Eastern instability which increases fuel costs domestically. Higher freight rates are already filtering through global supply chains, raising the price of imported goods and contributing to inflationary pressure within South Africa.

This places the South African Reserve Bank in a difficult position. Inflationary shocks driven by global conflict may complicate planned interest rate adjustments and further weaken the already volatile rand.

In other words, the geopolitical storm that creates opportunity also generates economic turbulence.

This moment must also be understood within a broader global transition. In their influential work The Fourth Turning, William Strauss and Neil Howe argue that societies periodically enter crisis eras in which existing institutions lose legitimacy and new power arrangements emerge. Whether one fully accepts the cyclical theory or not, it captures something essential about the present moment.

The post-Cold War order- built on assumptions of stable trade routes, predictable globalisation and institutional multilateralism is increasingly fracturing. Strategic competition, regional conflicts and economic nationalism are reshaping the architecture of global trade.

When such shifts occur, states positioned along critical logistical arteries often gain unexpected leverage.

South Africa’s geographic location places it precisely at such a junction.

The Cape route, once seen as a relic of pre-Suez navigation, is again becoming indispensable. Ships that once passed through the narrow chokepoints of the Middle East are now rounding Africa’s southern tip.

In doing so, they reaffirm the enduring strategic significance of South Africa’s coastline.

But geography alone does not produce power. Infrastructure does.

If South Africa wishes to translate this maritime moment into long-term economic hegemony within Africa, it must urgently modernise its port infrastructure, streamline customs systems and stabilise logistics networks linking ports to inland markets.

Failure to do so would squander one of the most significant geo-economic opportunities presented to the country in decades.

In a world where geopolitical conflict is redrawing trade routes, states that control the arteries of commerce gain influence. South Africa stands at one such artery.

Whether it can convert geography into power will determine whether this crisis becomes merely another episode of global instability or the beginning of South Africa’s maritime resurgence.