By-election trends show ANC resilient in rural areas, despite national challenges

702's John Perlman chats to elections analyst, Wayne Sussman.

Listen to their conversation in the audio clip below:

Voter loyalty in the African National Congress' strongholds appears unshaken.

Recent by-election results suggest the ANC continues to solidify its hold on rural South African constituencies, with strong showings in Limpopo and the Eastern Cape.

In the Sekhukhune region of Limpopo, the party came close to breaching the 80% mark, while in Cacadu (formerly Lady Frere), the ANC secured over 90% of the vote. 

Sussman notes this trend highlights the party’s "rock solid" support in rural areas, even as its urban strength remains under pressure.

"The ANC's support in rural areas is totally rock solid, and the by-elections yesterday continue to support that trend. These are not areas where there are an insignificant amount of voters. The Eastern Cape is the fourth most populous province in the country; Limpopo is the fifth. So, those who choose to write ANC off should do so at their peril." 

- Wayne Sussman, Elections analyst

Meanwhile, the Democratic Alliance (DA) recorded a welcome victory in the Northern Cape's Douglas area, flipping an independent-held seat and showing growth in a province where it previously struggled.

"In 2024, the Northern Cape was the province where the DA fared the worst, when one compares it to the previous election. They'll be delighted by this; they were the strong favourite to win here...they'd be happy...it was a comfortable victory."

- Wayne Sussman, Elections analyst

The ANC also improved its vote share in the area, while the Patriotic Alliance (PA) made inroads, suggesting the field remains competitive. 

The DA’s comfortable win, however, was seen as a potential turning point in the province.

The South African Communist Party (SACP) continued to falter, earning just 1% of the vote in both Limpopo and a recent Polokwane by-election. 

Its poor showing raises questions about its decision to contest elections independently. 

"If I'm the South African Communist Party, I'm going to think very carefully where I decide to contest the by-election if I'm going to do it before the local government elections."

- Wayne Sussman, Elections analyst

Sussman adds that the results suggest little threat to the ANC from its former alliance partner, at least for now.

ALSO READ:

• ‘The ANC must have one message with many voices’ – Dr Gwen Ramokgopa, Treasurer General 
• DA poll suggests ANC support drops below 30% ahead of 2026 elections 

Scroll up to listen to the full conversation