By-election losses, close calls signal trouble for ANC: 'They should be greatly concerned' - Election analyst

702's John Perlman chats to election analyst Wayne Sussman.

Listen below:

The African National Congress (ANC) narrowly held onto key wards in recent by-elections, but its shrinking margins and rising competition point to deepening political volatility.

"This is one of their worst rounds of by-elections in 2025."

- Wayne Sussman, Election Analyst 

The party suffered a major blow in Soweto’s Ward 130 by-election, where its support plummeted from 56% to just 34%. 

uMkhonto weSizwe (MK Party) outpolled the ANC in the predominantly Zulu-speaking area of Emdeni, while ActionSA won key districts and finished second overall.

Sussman calls the result "staggering," warning it could signal broader trouble for the ANC in similar Gauteng wards ahead of the 2026 local government elections.

He says the scale of the decline is striking, explaining that in 2011, the ANC held this ward with 89% of the vote. 

Now, in 2025, it only managed to win half of the eight voting districts. 

Sussman adds that the fragmentation of voter support (split across ActionSA, MK, EFF, and others) shows a shifting political landscape, with the ANC no longer dominant in key urban centres. 

He points to ongoing failures in service delivery and infrastructure in Johannesburg as a core reason for voter dissatisfaction.

"The ANC will have to go back to the drawing board in the City of Johannesburg."

- Wayne Sussman, Election Analyst 

"Who in a million years would think that there's a prospect of the ANC falling below 30% in the most populous metropolitan area of the country?"

- Wayne Sussman, Election Analyst 

Nationwide, the ANC’s losses extended to other provinces. 

The Patriotic Alliance captured a seat from the ANC in the Eastern Cape’s Kou-Kamma, while the EFF gained ground in both Limpopo and the Free State. 

In Bela Bela, the ANC’s support dropped by 11 percentage points, and in the Free State, the EFF nearly unseated the ANC as local parties collapsed. 

Sussman warns that this may be the beginning of a dangerous trend for the party.

"The ANC should be greatly concerned."

- Wayne Sussman, Election Analyst 

For a full breakdown of the latest round of by-election results, you can read Sussman's Daily Maverick article. 

RELATED: By-election trends show ANC resilient in rural areas, despite national challenges

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